Frosty sun won’t affect earth’s temperature

By RTCC Staff

While the Sun's output is likely to decrease by 2100, it will not negate rising tempuratures from climate change (Source: dingbat2005/flickr)

New research has found that while the sun’s output will temporarily decrease, it will not be enough to negate rising temperatures caused by greenhouse gases.

The study by the UK’s Met Office and the University of Reading looked to establish the most likely changes in the Sun’s activity over the next 90 years and how this could affect near-surface temperatures on Earth.

It found that the most likely outcome was the Sun’s output would decrease, causing a reduction in global temperatures of 0.08°C.

This is compared to the expected 2.5°C warming over the same period due to greenhouse gas emissions.

Gareth Jones, from the Met Office said: “This research shows that the most likely change in the Sun’s output will not have a big impact on global temperatures or do much to slow the warming we expect from greenhouse gases.”

He added it is important to note the study is based on a single climate model rather than multiple models which would capture climate uncertainties.

They were based on the IPCC’s B2 scenario for emissions that does not involve efforts to mitigate.

The study also showed that if solar output reduced below that seen in the Maunder Minimum – the lowest observed level of solar activity seen between 1645 and 1715 – the global temperature reduction would be 0.13°C.

This would still not be sufficient to curb the effects of climate change.

Peter Stott, also from the Met Office said: “Our findings suggest that a reduction of solar activity to levels not seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient to offset the dominant influence of greenhouse gases on global temperatures in the 21st Century.”

Read more on: Nature | | |