Is electrification a no-brainer in the race to net-zero?

Standing inside a purpose-built laboratory at the University of Salford is a red-brick terraced house. At first glance, it looks just like the thousands of homes that line the streets beyond in the northern English city of Manchester.

But this is Energy House 1, located on Joule Terrace, and it has been designed by scientists researching what Britain’s dreams of an all-electric, net zero future might look like in reality.

The house, and its successor Energy House 2, have been used to test an array of technologies – from smart meters to thermal paints – combined with detailed modelling to understand their real world implications.

As countries race to wean their economies off fossil fuels and reduce their carbon emissions to net zero by mid-century, switching to electricity in homes and transportation looks like a relatively easy win. 

Ageing gas boilers can be replaced with a heat pump to warm radiators and water tanks, for example. And millions of vehicles powered by petrol and diesel can be switched out for electric vehicles (EVs). 

Yet the extent to which that shift contributes to a green energy transition will depend on the level of renewables and other clean energy sources adopted by each country.

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‘Age of electricity’

Globally, power generation from solar panels and wind turbines increased at a record pace in 2024, an annual review by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows. That was thanks to a rapid rate of new renewables installation, while nuclear power output was boosted by new projects and the restarting of reactors in France and Japan.

But electricity generation from fossil gas and coal kept growing and, overall, fossil fuels still represented 60% of the global electricity mix last year.

Soaring use of cooling technologies like air conditioning in response to extreme heat was a key factor in the growing appetite for electricity, especially in China and India, which are heavy users of coal power, the IEA said. 

Growing electricity consumption by industry, the rollout of electric vehicles and the expansion of data centres also drove power demand, it added.

Rising gas and coal use fuelled a 0.8% increase in global carbon dioxide emissions generated by the energy sector in 2024, the IEA said – but trends varied widely across regions.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, noted that “even though oil and gas will remain essential energy carriers, we hear the footsteps of the age of electricity coming”.

Governments need holistic vision

Despite this expectation of a fundamental shift in how economies are run, electrification as a goal in itself is often neglected in governments’ climate plans, according to Richard Black, director of policy and strategy at Ember, a UK-based energy think-tank.

“Electrification as a concept is something that’s only really talked about by energy analysts,” he said.

“Governments don’t think in these terms. They think about electric cars or heating, or green steel. They don’t necessarily have a holistic vision of why it makes sense to consider all these sectors together, and how you would plan your electricity system expansion alongside that,” he added.

April’s massive power outage across Spain and Portugal was a reminder of the challenges of growing dependence on electricity, as transport networks and businesses were severely disrupted. While the cause is still being investigated, there have been calls for investment in national grid infrastructure and storage to ensure increases in electricity capacity can be managed appropriately – a challenge that is not limited to the Iberian peninsula.

In the Global South, meanwhile, some 750 million people still live without access to electric power – mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the IEA. That is putting the brakes on ambitious plans to boost EV adoption on the continent, especially in remote rural areas. 

Electricity demand surges, expanding renewables and fossil fuels in 2024

Electric vehicles catch up

Despite such issues, vast strides have already been made on electrification globally, Black said, noting that researchers have dubbed China the world’s first major “electrostate”, having electrified by 10 percentage points per decade.

Crucially, the new clean industries leading the electrification charge will allow governments to meet their climate targets while offering the public the promise of economic growth and green jobs.

The boom in EVs over the last decade is a case in point.

EVs aren’t new. In the early 20th century, they were in widespread use in US cities, with up to 30,000 EVs in operation at their peak. This was followed by a short, sharp decline as cheaper and longer-range petrol cars came to dominate.

In 2010, EVs made up less than 1% of all car sales worldwide.

But by the end of 2024, global sales of EVs had reached 17 million units, an increase of 25% on the previous year, according to data firm Rho Motion. Separate figures put the total number of global car sales at 75 million during the year.

The shift to EVs has been supported by strong government incentives such as subsidies – in places such as Norway, these policies helped new EV sales reach 89% of all car sales last year.

Alongside tax exemptions, Norwegian EV drivers have in the past enjoyed perks such as access to bus lanes, free municipal parking and zero charges on toll roads.

Clear emissions targets and the threat of fines have played a role in pushing European manufacturers to go electric. Across the European Union, CO2 targets for new vehicles are coming into force in 2025, which, although recently watered down, still have the ultimate goal of reaching zero emissions by 2035. 

“The EU’s green policies are beginning to bite,” William Todts, executive director at the climate advocacy group Transport & Environment, told Climate Home. “Thanks to the switch to EVs, we are starting to see a structural decline in transport emissions.”

“Now is not the time to roll back green measures. For the continent’s prosperity and security, now is the time to double down,” he added.

Heat pump race

In the lab at the University of Salford, researchers put the Energy House through its paces by recreating the gamut of British weather conditions – from torrential rain to temperatures from minus 13 degrees Celsius (8.6 Fahrenheit) to 30C (86F).

The weather simulations allow researchers to test the effectiveness of technologies such as battery storage, heat pumps and ‘V2G’, or vehicle-to-grid, where power stored in an EV can send electricity back to the national grid in times of need.

One of their recent studies found heat pumps are successful at meeting the hot water demands of an average UK household, even under challenging winter conditions.

Many countries are betting on pumps that suck in heat from the air, ground or water to heat homes and other buildings as a way to cut their emissions. Over 40% of buildings in Sweden and Finland, for example, contain heat pumps, and North America has the largest number of homes with one.

Britain, which has lagged its European neighbours, has a target to install 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028 – 10 times the current number of annual installations.

France has already hit over 600,000 units installed a year, and Poland, Italy and Germany have all reached similar numbers. As with EVs, the right government policies are vital to ensuring take-up, energy experts said.

“In the UK the principal problems are the relatively high costs of heat pumps and the electricity-to-gas price ratio,” said Professor Rob Gross, director at the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), calling for policies to reduce electricity prices, change how energy tariffs are structured, and cut gas dependence which often dictates prices.

High installation costs are also an obstacle. Industry estimates put the average cost at between $3,000 and $6,000, but in some markets it can be much higher, and significantly so when compared to a boiler fired by natural gas. 

Tariffs and tensions

Another potential obstacle for clean power advocates is the dramatic US climate policy shift under President Donald Trump and his import tariffs, which have sparked a trade war with China that threatens to bring in other countries too.

This disruption – especially if it leads to rising prices for clean energy equipment, a market dominated by China – could lead policymakers to think twice about the need to electrify their economies. 

At a recent global energy summit in London, a Trump administration official criticised renewables, arguing they cause power cuts and increase reliance on China.

But Black said heightened international trade tensions mean governments “should be thinking logically about energy security”.

“The only way for most countries to become totally energy secure is through renewables,” he said. “There’s no obstacle to really forging ahead with the transition.”

Adam Wentworth is a freelance writer based in Brighton, UK