Trump’s tariff tantrum won’t stop the global energy transition

Andreas Sieber is the Associate Director of Policy and Campaigns at 350.org.

Trump has such a passion for tariffs he even imposed them on Antarctic islands – home only to penguins, who presumably pose a grave threat to American industry.

Now that the dust is settling – with global stock markets down and US dollar inflation up – two things are clear: the US president’s enthusiasm far outstrips his economic competence; and his shiny new tariffs won’t stop the global energy transition, no matter how hard he tries. 

Donald Trump’s tariffs will harm the US economy and working families. But different from what some might fear, the tariffs won’t stop wind and solar energy. The United States’ share in the global cleantech trade is simply too marginal to dictate its terms in this sector. Other than Antarctic penguins, the global energy transition is safe from Trump’s tariffs. 

Emerging economies set to dominate

A decade ago, Trump’s tariffs could have delivered a significant blow to the global energy transition: developed economies dominated solar and wind installations – accounting for roughly 70% of solar and 50% of wind capacity additions between 2010 and 2015. 

Since then, two major developments must be taken into account. First, emerging economies’ share in renewable installations and the cleantech trade have boomed while the share of installations in advanced economies, including the US, has shrunk significantly. In 2009, about one in four solar panels was installed in the United States. In 2024, less than one in 12 renewable projects globally were added in the US.

According to the International Energy Agency, emerging and developing economies are set to dominate clean energy markets by 2030 – claiming 70% of solar PV, 60% of wind, and 60% of battery storage capacity. 

Fossil fuel nations to see value of their economies shrink under new UN-agreed measure

Additionally, the US has not only isolated itself on cleantech in the last week, it has increasingly done so over the past 10 years. Today, China is by far the world’s largest producer and exporter of solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles – yet only 4% of those products go to the US, compared to 15% of China’s overall exports. In a market with growth dynamics like the green tech market has, tariffs on a 4% share of this market are a mere footnote.

China exported 235.93 gigawatts (GW) of solar modules in 2024, a market it dominates in an unparalleled manner, marking a 13% year-on-year increase from 207.99 GW in 2023. While impressive, the 13% of solar panel exports are small compared to other cleantech: China’s exports of wind turbines surged by over 70% last year. In the global cleantech race, the US is becoming a shrinking, isolated player.

Too poor to buy American luxury goods

None of this suggests Trump’s tariffs are harmless. Far from it – they will hit working families and poorer nations hardest. The former president insists he understands economic policy, but reality paints a different picture. Not only has he repeatedly conflated trade deficits with tariffs – a confusion that would earn a failing grade in any Economics 101 course – but analysts now expect U.S. inflation to rise faster than in almost any other major economy, surpassing even Canada, the EU, and many of the very countries targeted by his trade measures.

It’s the working people he claims to defend who will bear the brunt of these price hikes. Ironically, if the revenue from tariffs is used for anything by the Trump administration, it will be to pay for massive tax cuts for the wealthy. 

Meanwhile, markets are stumbling, and the erratic choreography of tariff threats, reversals, and ultimatums has spooked investors, in particular in the US. No one really knows what’s next. Should they swallow the cost of more expensive imports, or gamble on domestic production in uncertainty? With investor confidence sliding to levels unseen since the COVID-19 shock, “America First” increasingly resembles “Economics Last”.

Comment: Finance for renewable energy in sub-Saharan Africa is defying the odds 

The persistent conflation of trade deficits with tariffs does more than reveal economic illiteracy – it inflicts real harm, particularly on poorer nations. The notion that all countries must maintain perfectly balanced trade is, at best, a fantasy. Consider Madagascar, where GDP per capita hovers just above $500. The US imports vanilla and critical minerals from the country. Yet the United States imposes trade penalties on Madagascar and many similar countries as if it were a competitive threat – despite the obvious reality that no one in Antananarivo, Cambodia, or Botswana is lining up to buy a Tesla.

Free trade is no silver bullet, and forcing developing economies in particular to open up their markets has historically done harm. But now, Trump is punishing people for being too poor to buy American luxury goods.

Protectionism or co-operation by the rest of the world?

The more urgent question now is how the rest of the world might recalibrate trade relations with each other – not just in retaliation against the United States. Will Trump’s tariffs trigger a broader shift toward protectionism, prompting countries to erect new trade barriers among themselves under the guise of “strategic autonomy”? This could indeed threaten the pace of transition efforts.

The US is drifting into economic isolation. Canada and Mexico have previously aligned their tariff responses; China, Japan and South Korea, though not formally coordinated, seem to be synchronising their strategies with more or less quiet efficiency.

Climate and the energy transition remain textbook examples of why Trump’s zero-sum instincts are wholly unfit for purpose. Global cooperation on climate is not optional. Even countries locked in geopolitical tension must find ways to collaborate on decarbonization – unless, of course, the plan is to compete all the way to climate collapse.

COP30 chief calls for global unity on climate action as cooperation falters

For too long, European leaders have indulged in the futile art of appeasing Donald Trump – among various avenues, by pledging to absorb vast surpluses of American liquefied natural gas. The irony, of course, is that this LNG isn’t needed; worse still, it risks locking Europe into years of inflated energy costs for consumers.

The strategy of placation has plainly failed. Doubling down on dependency through new US LNG deals is short-sighted on multiple levels – not just for those concerned about climate, but for anyone with even a passing interest in economic sovereignty.

Trump may have shocked the world, but he has equally exposed himself as a bully – one whose policies are not only reckless and unreliable but, frankly, embarrassingly misguided. The good news is the US cannot dictate the terms of cleantech trade and the energy transition. The world should move forward without him and keep climate and renewables as a critical area of cooperation and prosperity.